Does travellers’ casual attribution affect pre-recovery emotions and behavioural intentions? A field study of airline travellers in Malaysia

This study examines the relationship between airline travellers' casual attribution, pre-recovery emotions, and negative behavioural intentions after a service failure and proposes a model for analysing direct effects of airline travellers' casual attribution of stability (failure frequency) and controllability (the extent to which the airline can control the failure) on negative behavioural intentions as well as its indirect effects through pre-recovery emotions. Data were gathered through a survey of airline travellers who experienced a failure in the past six months. The results indicate that both dimensions of casual attribution influenced pre-recovery emotions and negative behavioural intentions, and that pre-recovery emotions were significantly related to negative behavioural intentions. In addition, the results verify the mediating effect of pre-recovery emotions on the relationship between casual attribution and behavioural intentions. These results have important managerial implications.     

Political uncertainty and a firm's credit risk: Evidence from the international CDS market

Using a large sample of firms with single-name credit default swap (CDS) contracts in 30 countries, we document the evidence that political uncertainty, proxied by national election dummy, is positively related to firm-level credit risk. Specifically, this positive relation is more pronounced for the firms that have no political connection or poor international diversification, and in the countries with higher political uncertainty and lower investor protections. Further, by using a difference-in-differences approach, we find evidence to support idiosyncratic volatility and debt rollover channels through which political uncertainty affects the credit risk of individual firm.     

Risk-based capital for credit insurers with business cycles and dynamic leverage

This paper develops a risk-based capital pricing model for credit insurance portfolios held by a vulnerable insurer. The model accounts for business cycles using a two-state Markov switching model, and allows for dynamic leverage adjustment by the insured firms. The new proposed model, which incorporates risk-based capital practice, is better for both the insurer and the insured firms. Based on the risk-adjusted performance metric, we found that the insurer is better off insuring short- and medium-term loans in expansion and steady states, while it is better off backing both short- and long-term loans in recessions. Our results also emphasize that macroeconomic uncertainty significantly impairs the creditworthiness of the insurer and insured firms.     

DETERMINANTS OF SOVEREIGN BONDS RATINGS: A ROBUSTNESS ANALYSIS

Several studies have attempted to deduce the determinants of sovereign bond ratings. In this study, Extreme Bounds Analysis is applied to approximately 30 factors proposed by the literature in order to assess their robustness with a focus on the relative importance that economic and political variables receive in the shaping of the ratings. We find that policies that constrain the public sector are among the most robust. Variables such as rule of law, openness to economic flows, central bank independence, and market friendly policies are found to be more robustly correlated with the ratings than foreign reserves, fiscal deficit, sovereign bond yields, and economic growth.     

Is ex-post credit risk affected by the cycles? The case of Italian banks

The objective of this research is to empirically examine if both credit and business cycle affect the ex-post credit risk (i.e. non-performing loans) in the banking system of Italy for the period 1995Q1–2014Q1. The increase in NPLs post-2008 has put into question the robustness of many European banks and the stability of the whole sector. It still remains a serious challenge, especially in Italy which is one of the countries that hit by the financial crisis. By employing fixed and random effects and a dynamic GMM estimation as econometric methodologies I find results that underline common causes for NPLs. Higher NPLs in Italy are mostly due to worse macroeconomic conditions (i.e. bad phase of business cycle) and due to excess credit. Through a Granger causality test, my arguments found even more support. Such findings can be helpful when designing macro-prudential as well as NPL resolution policies.     

湖南省农村信贷现状及发展对策

根据对湖南省农村信贷现状的调查,进而对湖南农村信贷在发展中存在的问题进行了分析,并提出了完善湖南省农村信贷的发展对策.     

Assessing targeted macroprudential financial regulation: The case of the 2006 commercial real estate guidance for banks

In January 2006, federal regulators issued guidance requiring banks with specific high concentrations of commercial real estate (CRE) loans to tighten managerial controls. This paper shows that banks with concentrations in excess of the thresholds set in the guidance subsequently experienced slower growth in their CRE portfolios than can be explained by changes in bank or economic conditions. Moreover, banks above the CRE thresholds tended to have slower commercial and industrial loan growth but faster household loan growth following issuance of the guidance. The results highlight the potentially broad influence that portfolio-based macroprudential regulation might have on bank behavior.     

Explaining banking stability in Sub-Saharan Africa

The study examined banking stability in Sub-Saharan Africa. The results reveal that banking spread (Net Interest Margin – NIM) is the main determinant of stability and the major means to achieve stability during crises periods. We however find the existence of a threshold effect in NIM.Crises in the banking sector consistently showed to reduce stability. While the results show that high percentage of foreign banks reduce stability, we find foreign banks help stabilize the banking sector in periods of crises. The results show that diversification could also have a positive impact on stability (Z-score) even though this relationship was not robust enough. The results also largely support the competition-fragility view. Particularly, we find that less competition during crises periods can help improve stability. Again, we find evidence for both concentration-stability and concentration-fragility hypotheses depending on the stability measure used. We however find that when large banks in concentrated markets are well regulated, stability could be improved. Weak regulatory environment reduces stability (Z-score) directly and matters during crises periods. Our results are robust to the use of different indicators of stability and estimation methods.     

An experiment on the role of tourist attribution: Evidence from negative nature-based incidents

More so than previously, in recent years tourists have been exposed to unexpected adverse situations, such as political instability, caused by the destination. Many aspects of the destination experience do not involve service delivery and product consumption; thus, such an experience needs to be treated uniquely. Acknowledging that the effects of tourists’ inner psychological processes in this context are crucial, this study applies attribution theory to examine how tourists make sense of negative incidents caused by the destination’s natural incidents. The results show the crucial effects of globality attribution in predicting the levels of satisfaction.     

Evaluating monetary policy with financial stability objective: rules vs. discretion

This article explores whether adding the goal of financial stability to the more traditional goals of output and price stability could improve optimality of monetary policy. A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model that endogenously incorporates financial frictions is used to derive optimality conditions across rule-based and discretionary monetary policy environments. The results indicate that it is optimal for the Central Bank to keep output below the potential level in the short term so as to dampen the inflationary effects arising from supply and financial shocks. When the economy is exposed to a financial shock, both leverage and credit spread rise significantly, thereby tipping the economy into a financial crisis and raising the probability of macroeconomic risk.